A recent report published in the February 2008 edition of the Natural Hazards Review, which was written by researchers from the National Hurricane Center, along with researchers from Universities and private weather and insurance firms, seems to indicate that global warming has not caused a significant increase in destruction from hurricanes. In fact, it may surprise some of you to learn that the most costly decade in U.S. history was 1926 to 1935.
The report uses a term called “normalization” which basically amounts to translating the damage estimate in dollars from past storms to ‘today’s dollars’ after calculating the changes in inflation, population, income, housing costs, etc. After their calculations, they have determined that there is no set trend of increasing intensity or frequency of storms - the examples of damage amounts over several decades prove very interesting. They site 1926 and 2005 as the most damaging years.
For those of you who have lived in hurricane prone coastal areas for many years, all of this may not come as such a surprise. The experience of living in these areas has proven to many that seasons can vary drastically from year to year. Hurricane predictions and forecasts (especially those of recent years) have been looked upon as somewhat of a joke, but no one is laughing.
If you would like to read the full report, go to the ASCE Research Library
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